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CBSE Board Examination 2024 · Section C · 3 marks

Q31: Independent E and F with P(Eˉ)=0⋅6P(\bar E) = 0{\cdot}6⁠, P(E∪F)=0⋅6P(E \cup F) = 0{\cdot}6⁠: find P(F)P(F) and P(Eˉ∪Fˉ)P(\bar E \cup \bar F)

The question

E and F are two independent events such that P(Eˉ)=0⋅6P(\bar E) = 0{\cdot}6 and P(E∪F)=0⋅6P(E \cup F) = 0{\cdot}6⁠. Find P(F)P(F) and P(Eˉ∪Fˉ)P(\bar E \cup \bar F)⁠.

Exam answer
P(E)=1−P(Eˉ)=1−0⋅6=0⋅4P(E) = 1 - P(\bar E) = 1 - 0{\cdot}6 = 0{\cdot}4
Why?

Eˉ\bar E is "E does not happen". An event and its complement have probabilities that add to 1:

P(E)+P(Eˉ)=1P(E) + P(\bar E) = 1

E and F are independent, so P(E∩F)=P(E) P(F)P(E \cap F) = P(E)\,P(F)⁠.

Why?

This is the definition of independent events: the probability that both happen is the product of their probabilities. It turns the unknown P(E∩F)P(E \cap F) into 0⋅4 P(F)0{\cdot}4\,P(F)⁠, so P(F)P(F) is the only unknown left.

P(E∪F)=P(E)+P(F)−P(E∩F)⇒ 0⋅6=0⋅4+P(F)−0⋅4 P(F)⇒ 0⋅6 P(F)=0⋅2\begin{aligned} &P(E \cup F) = P(E) + P(F) \\ &\qquad - P(E \cap F) \\ \Rightarrow\ &0{\cdot}6 = 0{\cdot}4 + P(F) \\ &\qquad - 0{\cdot}4\,P(F) \\ \Rightarrow\ &0{\cdot}6\,P(F) = 0{\cdot}2 \end{aligned}
Why?

This is the addition rule. Put in P(E∪F)=0⋅6P(E \cup F) = 0{\cdot}6⁠, P(E)=0⋅4P(E) = 0{\cdot}4 and P(E∩F)=0⋅4 P(F)P(E \cap F) = 0{\cdot}4\,P(F)⁠.

Then collect the P(F)P(F) terms: P(F)−0⋅4 P(F)=0⋅6 P(F)P(F) - 0{\cdot}4\,P(F) = 0{\cdot}6\,P(F)⁠. Subtracting 0⋅40{\cdot}4 from both sides leaves 0⋅6−0⋅4=0⋅20{\cdot}6 - 0{\cdot}4 = 0{\cdot}2 on the left.

0⋅6=0⋅4+P(F)−0⋅4 P(F)0⋅6=0⋅4+(1−0⋅4)P(F)0⋅6=0⋅4+0⋅6 P(F)0⋅6−0⋅4=0⋅6 P(F)0⋅2=0⋅6 P(F)\begin{aligned} 0{\cdot}6 &= 0{\cdot}4 + P(F) - 0{\cdot}4\,P(F) \\ 0{\cdot}6 &= 0{\cdot}4 + (1 - 0{\cdot}4)P(F) \\ 0{\cdot}6 &= 0{\cdot}4 + 0{\cdot}6\,P(F) \\ 0{\cdot}6 - 0{\cdot}4 &= 0{\cdot}6\,P(F) \\ 0{\cdot}2 &= 0{\cdot}6\,P(F) \end{aligned}

Turned round, this is 0⋅6 P(F)=0⋅20{\cdot}6\,P(F) = 0{\cdot}2⁠.

∴ P(F)=13\therefore\ P(F) = \frac13

Why?

P(F)=0⋅20⋅6=26=13P(F) = \frac{0{\cdot}2}{0{\cdot}6} = \frac{2}{6} = \frac13⁠.

Divide both sides by 0⋅60{\cdot}6⁠. Then multiply top and bottom by 10 to clear the decimals, and divide top and bottom by 2:

P(F)=0⋅20⋅6=0⋅2×100⋅6×10=26=2÷26÷2=13\begin{aligned} P(F) &= \frac{0{\cdot}2}{0{\cdot}6} \\ &= \frac{0{\cdot}2 \times 10}{0{\cdot}6 \times 10} = \frac{2}{6} \\ &= \frac{2 \div 2}{6 \div 2} = \frac13 \end{aligned}
P(Eˉ∪Fˉ)=P(E∩F‾)=1−P(E∩F)=1−0⋅4×13=1−215\begin{aligned} P(\bar E \cup \bar F) &= P(\overline{E \cap F}) \\ &= 1 - P(E \cap F) \\ &= 1 - 0{\cdot}4\times\frac13 \\ &= 1 - \frac{2}{15} \end{aligned}
Why?

By De Morgan's law, "not E or not F" is the complement of "E and F":

Eˉ∪Fˉ=E∩F‾\bar E \cup \bar F = \overline{E \cap F}

Then use the complement rule and independence again. The product is 410×13=430=215\frac{4}{10}\times\frac13 = \frac{4}{30} = \frac{2}{15}⁠, and 1−215=13151 - \frac{2}{15} = \frac{13}{15}⁠.

0⋅4=410410×13=4×110×3=430=4÷230÷2=2151−215=1515−215=15−215=1315\begin{aligned} 0{\cdot}4 &= \frac{4}{10} \\ \frac{4}{10}\times\frac13 &= \frac{4 \times 1}{10 \times 3} = \frac{4}{30} \\ &= \frac{4 \div 2}{30 \div 2} = \frac{2}{15} \\[4pt] 1 - \frac{2}{15} &= \frac{15}{15} - \frac{2}{15} \\ &= \frac{15 - 2}{15} = \frac{13}{15} \end{aligned}

∴ P(F)=13\therefore\ P(F) = \dfrac13 and P(Eˉ∪Fˉ)=1315P(\bar E \cup \bar F) = \dfrac{13}{15}⁠.

Where this comes from

Chapter 13, Probability: Independent events; probability of a union.

Question type: Mutually exclusive or independent

How to spot it: click to see

Type 5. Mutually exclusive or independent: two different rules

Spot it: the question uses one of the two words, or asks you to compare them.

Here: E and F are independent, so put P(E∩F)=0.4 P(F)P(E \cap F) = 0.4\,P(F) into the addition rule: 0.6=0.4+P(F)−0.4 P(F)0.6 = 0.4 + P(F) - 0.4\,P(F) gives P(F)=13P(F) = \frac13⁠.

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