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CBSE Board Examination 2024 · Section A · 1 mark

Q11: If P(A∣B)=P(A′∣B)P(A|B) = P(A'|B)⁠, then P(A∩B)=12P(B)P(A \cap B) = \frac{1}{2}P(B)

The question

If P(A∣B)=P(A′∣B)P(A|B) = P(A'|B)⁠, then which of the following statements is true ?

(A) P(A)=P(A′)P(A) = P(A')

(B) P(A)=2 P(B)P(A) = 2\,P(B)

(C) P(A∩B)=12 P(B)P(A \cap B) = \frac{1}{2}\,P(B)

(D) P(A∩B)=2 P(B)P(A \cap B) = 2\,P(B)

Exam answer

We know P(A∣B)+P(A′∣B)=1P(A|B) + P(A'|B) = 1⁠.

Why?

Once BB has happened, either AA happens or it does not. In terms of the definition,

P(A∣B)+P(A′∣B)=P(A∩B)+P(A′∩B)P(B)=P(B)P(B)=1\begin{aligned} &P(A|B) + P(A'|B) \\ &= \frac{P(A \cap B) + P(A' \cap B)}{P(B)} \\ &= \frac{P(B)}{P(B)} = 1 \end{aligned}

because A∩BA \cap B and A′∩BA' \cap B split BB into two parts with no overlap.

Given P(A∣B)=P(A′∣B)P(A|B) = P(A'|B)⁠,

P(A∣B)+P(A′∣B)=1⇒2P(A∣B)=1⇒P(A∩B)P(B)=12⇒P(A∩B)=12P(B)\begin{aligned} P(A|B) + P(A'|B) &= 1 \\ \Rightarrow 2P(A|B) &= 1 \\ \Rightarrow \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} &= \frac{1}{2} \\ \Rightarrow P(A \cap B) &= \frac{1}{2}P(B) \end{aligned}
Why?

The two equal terms add to 2P(A∣B)2P(A|B)⁠. Divide both sides by 2:

P(A∣B)+P(A∣B)=12P(A∣B)=1P(A∣B)=12\begin{aligned} P(A|B) + P(A|B) &= 1 \\ 2P(A|B) &= 1 \\ P(A|B) &= \frac12 \end{aligned}

Then the definition of conditional probability is used:

P(A∣B)=P(A∩B)P(B)P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}

Multiplying both sides by P(B)P(B) gives the last line.

The condition says nothing about P(A)P(A) itself, so (A) and (B) need not hold. (D) is impossible when P(B)>0P(B) > 0⁠, because P(A∩B)≤P(B)P(A \cap B) \le P(B)⁠.

Why?

A∩BA \cap B is part of BB⁠, so its probability cannot be more than P(B)P(B)⁠. But 2P(B)>P(B)2P(B) > P(B) whenever P(B)>0P(B) > 0⁠.

Answer: (C) P(A∩B)=12 P(B)P(A \cap B) = \dfrac{1}{2}\,P(B)

Where this comes from

Chapter 13, Probability: Conditional probability.

Question type: Given numbers

How to spot it: click to see

Type 1. Given numbers: divide by the event after the bar

Spot it: the question gives P(E)P(E)⁠, P(F)P(F) and P(E∩F)P(E\cap F)⁠, and asks for P(E∣F)P(E|F) or P(F∣E)P(F|E)⁠.

Here: No numbers this time, but the same formula does it. P(A∣B)+P(A′∣B)=1P(A|B) + P(A'|B) = 1 makes each 12\frac12⁠; then write P(A∣B)=P(A∩B)P(B)=12P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} = \frac12⁠, with BB⁠, the event after the bar, on the bottom.

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