CBSE Board Examination 2024 · Section A · 1 mark
Q11: If P ( A ∣ B ) = P ( A ′ ∣ B ) P(A|B) = P(A'|B) P ( A ∣ B ) = P ( A ′ ∣ B ) , then P ( A ∩ B ) = 1 2 P ( B ) P(A \cap B) = \frac{1}{2}P(B) P ( A ∩ B ) = 2 1 P ( B )
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The question
If P ( A ∣ B ) = P ( A ′ ∣ B ) P(A|B) = P(A'|B) P ( A ∣ B ) = P ( A ′ ∣ B ) , then which of the following statements is true ?
(A) P ( A ) = P ( A ′ ) P(A) = P(A') P ( A ) = P ( A ′ )
(B) P ( A ) = 2 P ( B ) P(A) = 2\,P(B) P ( A ) = 2 P ( B )
(C) P ( A ∩ B ) = 1 2 P ( B ) P(A \cap B) = \frac{1}{2}\,P(B) P ( A ∩ B ) = 2 1 P ( B )
(D) P ( A ∩ B ) = 2 P ( B ) P(A \cap B) = 2\,P(B) P ( A ∩ B ) = 2 P ( B )
Exam answer Show all explanations
We know P ( A ∣ B ) + P ( A ′ ∣ B ) = 1 P(A|B) + P(A'|B) = 1 P ( A ∣ B ) + P ( A ′ ∣ B ) = 1 .
Why?
Once B B B has happened, either A A A happens or it does not. In terms of the definition,
P ( A ∣ B ) + P ( A ′ ∣ B ) = P ( A ∩ B ) + P ( A ′ ∩ B ) P ( B ) = P ( B ) P ( B ) = 1 \begin{aligned} &P(A|B) + P(A'|B) \\ &= \frac{P(A \cap B) + P(A' \cap B)}{P(B)} \\ &= \frac{P(B)}{P(B)} = 1 \end{aligned} P ( A ∣ B ) + P ( A ′ ∣ B ) = P ( B ) P ( A ∩ B ) + P ( A ′ ∩ B ) = P ( B ) P ( B ) = 1
because A ∩ B A \cap B A ∩ B and A ′ ∩ B A' \cap B A ′ ∩ B split B B B into two parts with no overlap.
Given P ( A ∣ B ) = P ( A ′ ∣ B ) P(A|B) = P(A'|B) P ( A ∣ B ) = P ( A ′ ∣ B ) ,
P ( A ∣ B ) + P ( A ′ ∣ B ) = 1 ⇒ 2 P ( A ∣ B ) = 1 ⇒ P ( A ∩ B ) P ( B ) = 1 2 ⇒ P ( A ∩ B ) = 1 2 P ( B ) \begin{aligned} P(A|B) + P(A'|B) &= 1 \\ \Rightarrow 2P(A|B) &= 1 \\ \Rightarrow \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} &= \frac{1}{2} \\ \Rightarrow P(A \cap B) &= \frac{1}{2}P(B) \end{aligned} P ( A ∣ B ) + P ( A ′ ∣ B ) ⇒ 2 P ( A ∣ B ) ⇒ P ( B ) P ( A ∩ B ) ⇒ P ( A ∩ B ) = 1 = 1 = 2 1 = 2 1 P ( B )
Why?
The two equal terms add to 2 P ( A ∣ B ) 2P(A|B) 2 P ( A ∣ B ) . Divide both sides by 2:
P ( A ∣ B ) + P ( A ∣ B ) = 1 2 P ( A ∣ B ) = 1 P ( A ∣ B ) = 1 2 \begin{aligned} P(A|B) + P(A|B) &= 1 \\ 2P(A|B) &= 1 \\ P(A|B) &= \frac12 \end{aligned} P ( A ∣ B ) + P ( A ∣ B ) 2 P ( A ∣ B ) P ( A ∣ B ) = 1 = 1 = 2 1
Then the definition of conditional probability is used:
P ( A ∣ B ) = P ( A ∩ B ) P ( B ) P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} P ( A ∣ B ) = P ( B ) P ( A ∩ B )
Multiplying both sides by P ( B ) P(B) P ( B ) gives the last line.
The condition says nothing about P ( A ) P(A) P ( A ) itself, so (A) and (B) need not hold. (D) is impossible when P ( B ) > 0 P(B) > 0 P ( B ) > 0 , because P ( A ∩ B ) ≤ P ( B ) P(A \cap B) \le P(B) P ( A ∩ B ) ≤ P ( B ) .
Why?
A ∩ B A \cap B A ∩ B is part of B B B , so its probability cannot be more than P ( B ) P(B) P ( B ) . But 2 P ( B ) > P ( B ) 2P(B) > P(B) 2 P ( B ) > P ( B ) whenever P ( B ) > 0 P(B) > 0 P ( B ) > 0 .
Answer: (C) P ( A ∩ B ) = 1 2 P ( B ) P(A \cap B) = \dfrac{1}{2}\,P(B) P ( A ∩ B ) = 2 1 P ( B )
Where this comes from Chapter 13, Probability : Conditional probability.
Question type: Given numbers
How to spot it: click to see Type 1. Given numbers: divide by the event after the bar
Spot it: the question gives P ( E ) P(E) P ( E ) , P ( F ) P(F) P ( F ) and P ( E ∩ F ) P(E\cap F) P ( E ∩ F ) , and asks for P ( E ∣ F ) P(E|F) P ( E ∣ F ) or P ( F ∣ E ) P(F|E) P ( F ∣ E ) .
Here: No numbers this time, but the same formula does it. P ( A ∣ B ) + P ( A ′ ∣ B ) = 1 P(A|B) + P(A'|B) = 1 P ( A ∣ B ) + P ( A ′ ∣ B ) = 1 makes each 1 2 \frac12 2 1 ; then write P ( A ∣ B ) = P ( A ∩ B ) P ( B ) = 1 2 P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} = \frac12 P ( A ∣ B ) = P ( B ) P ( A ∩ B ) = 2 1 , with B B B , the event after the bar, on the bottom.
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